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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd